The tendency of the yen also see Mr Abe economic efficacy

On Tuesday, August 13) Plate, the city against the yen, the dollar extended gains above the 98 mark, the Japanese consider cut corporate taxes are bad news for the yen weakening, at the same time, the bank of Japan ( BOJ) For Japan's economic recovery is expected optimism also boost the dollar against the yen higher. Market analysts said, however, if the future & other; Mr Abe economics & throughout; Start to lose, the yen is likely to rise significantly.
the Japanese economy expected optimism
on Tuesday July policy meeting minutes, according to the bank of Japan's central bank most review committee members believe that the domestic economy is beginning to recover, but there are also some members uncertainty for overseas economic growth, and domestic capital spending cautious outlook. 10 - in July 11 conference, Japan's central bank has raised the economic evaluation, for two and a half years since the most optimistic assessment.
summary, according to the specific content that all members are slightly improve the domestic demand, slightly weak overseas demand. Most committee members thought the Japanese economy began to moderate recovery; One member that considering the uncertainty in overseas markets, need time to confirm that Japan's economic recovery; One member that overseas economic recovery time may be delayed; Some members said overseas economies growth lower than expected, mainly China and emerging countries; All members that China cannot recover before high growth.
in the meantime, although Monday ( On August 12) According to data from the Japanese in the second quarter gross domestic product ( GDP) 2 season annualized rate of growth. Growth 6%, less than 3. 6% of the expected, but Japanese officials data view more optimistic, the Japanese economy finance minister akira amari ( Amari) After data, said he thinks Japan's GDP maintained a good performance.
the Japanese economy expected optimism that & other; Mr Abe economics & throughout; Are starting to show its efficacy, Japan's prime minister shinzo Abe ( Shinzo Abe) Has at the end of the promise at the beginning of Japan's deflation, said that the central bank needs to stick to its super monetary easing plan for a long time, also means that the yen will continue to sell off for a long time.
and 'Japanese economic news' a report on Tuesday also weaken the yen weakness. The reports, Japan's prime minister, Mr Abe is considering to reduce the corporate tax, two-step increase sales tax to offset the planned may drag on the economy. However, senior Japanese officials told the Wall Street journal, they have not yet received such instructions.
the yen long remained support
the Japanese government officials previously discussed by some taxes related to capital expenditure, but almost no talk about too much scope to cut tax rate in industrialized countries ranked the top corporate tax. Economists have said that in view of the fact that the Japanese government plans to cut the fiscal deficit, such a tax cut will make it difficult to implement due to lack of funds.
two Mr Abe's economic adviser, had said on Monday, the Japanese economy may not have strong enough to withstand the impact of consumption tax hike. Adviser to Honda, Japan's prime minister yue lang ( Honda) Said: & other; Japan's economic growth is still very weak, don't raise the consumption tax. ” Japan's cabinet special economic adviser is like a (tianhong Hamada) Also said the government there is no need to rush to raise the consumption tax, and can consider to will raise the schedule delay for a year. Shinzo Abe,
I avoid to talk about this problem, did not indicate whether or not he will start in April 2014, according to the plan raised the consumption tax, and the decision of whether to raise the consumption tax in Japan will be announced in September or October.
to see more yen, analysts said, raising the consumption tax is seen as a containment is an important step in the Japan's huge debt, as long as shinzo Abe showed any intention to give up the consumption tax hike plan, investors could start to the loss of confidence in the ability of other commitments were made.
tokio Marine asset management company's Kenichi Hirayama said: & other; The Japanese economy policy carries the risk of decline in the credibility. ” Market if lose confidence in a country's economic policy, so often hurt the country's currency, but involves the yen, the result is quite the opposite.
not only that, the yen long also supported by other factors. Some analysts pointed out that there is a factor is usually neglected, which is considered by Mr Abe leader of the liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is willing to restart more nuclear power plants.
import surge fossil fuels is the main cause of Japan's trade balance into a deficit, and restart more nuclear power plants should reduce the electric power enterprise of yen selling. Since 2011, after the fukushima incident, many nuclear power plant was shut down.
in addition, the yen long also pointed out that there is another factor to consider is that expectations for the fed to tighten monetary policy. Widely expected the federal reserve as early as in September the market at present has started to shrink in the third round of quantitative easing.
in the historical record of the movements of the dollar against the yen, the end of the stimulus by the federal reserve more inclined to good yen, rather than dollars. Every time an end to the fed's round of stimulus measures, against the yen, the dollar is lower, is the first time in June 2010, the second was in June 2011.
analysts point out that the fed will withdraw stimulus perturbation of the global financial market, causing safe-haven buying yen, the dollar against the yen or will be significantly lower.