The strong plastic nearly far weaker pattern is expected to maintain1

Recent strong plastic, especially 1309 contract is close to a year high of 11600 points. The main reason for the plastic strength on the one hand is crude oil higher drive; The low level of inventory on the other hand the plastic itself also play a clear role in driving. As a result, the plastic will remain strong nearly far weaker pattern, in addition, if the oil remain high, not rule out the possibility of plastic further strengthened.

from the perspective of financing side L1309 since early July main move warehouse, position and volume decline, but the decreasing speed significantly lower than the volume holdings, from a certain degree of long-short is more a stalemate. At the same time, L1309 contract holdings is 15 July 24. 20000, equivalent to 380000 tons LLDEP, which is equal to one month's plastic production, under the situation of the low level of inventory, also more of the market force empty formed certain help. From the perspective of the performance of long-short concentration, is also a long concentration is much higher than short concentration, and has a rising trend.

look from inventory, inventory levels continued to decline. As of July 16, 2013, the domestic PE major market total inventory continues to fall, PE is the end of last month to reduce 0. 56%, year-on-year decrease 10. 14%. From the area, south and the north this month inventory differences. The northern inventory 0 increase from the end of last month. 77%, more than a year earlier to reduce 7. 06%; South of inventory is the end of last month reduced by 1. 44%, year-on-year decrease 10. 12%. Overall, the first half of July although regional differences on inventory, but the social total inventory still maintain a downward trend. On the delivery of library registration of the warehouse receipt to 0. In the case of social inventory levels so low that plastic appear long strong phenomenon also is easy to explain.

on the spread of it, the price differential between 1401 and 1309 contracts hangs up to 545 yuan, in addition to the special cases in 2008, is a plastic since lows, return probability is increased. But we are from the perspective of the fundamentals of plastic, physical strength as well as the uncertainty of the economy is the main reason, at present, this kind of situation continues. Therefore, L1401 and L1309 contracts are expected to continue down the spread pattern, and has the potential to continue to expand.

to sum up, from the financing side and plastic inventory levels, suggest early single more can continue hold, if can be a small amount of new investors in 1309 contract layout more order, but need to focus on 10600 - 10800 yuan/ton pressure belt.